(Dan Tri) – National Interest expert Robert Farley based on the correlation of forces between the US and China and made predictions about situations that could push tensions to a climax and cause the two countries’ militaries to directly confront each other.

US aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) in the Pacific (Photo: US Navy)

According to expert Robert Farley, researcher at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Trade (USA), it is easy to imagine a scenario of a serious confrontation between the US and China in the East Sea region.

Neither China nor the US seem to want to be the first to start a war, at least in the near future.

However, China’s ambition to expand the East Sea and America’s stubbornness in ensuring freedom of navigation in the region according to international law can escalate tensions between the two forces.

In the past few months, China has stepped up the illegal construction of artificial islands in Vietnam’s Truong Sa archipelago.

The first scenario is quite clear, if US warships or aircraft enter territories that China claims as its own, Beijing’s navy sailors, soldiers and pilots seem to be at risk.

Military aircraft confront each other

EP-3 Orion aircraft (Photo: Wikimedia)

China and the US almost had a direct confrontation with each other because of the incident that took place on April 1, 2001.

Therefore, the scenario of warplanes from both sides confronting each other in the East Sea, leading to an escalation of tension, is entirely possible.

Mr. Farley said that if China decides to establish an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East Sea, the problem will be even more complicated.

However, if China declares the establishment of an ADIZ in the East Sea, Mr. Farley believes that the US will be tougher because Beijing benefits more and has a larger presence in this area.

Submarine collision

According to Mr. Farley, the risk of confrontation between the two countries from accidents involving submarines is entirely possible.

The reality is that China’s current submarines are quite noisy and US ships will have time to detect and swerve to avoid collision.

Lord Emperor

According to National Interest